Here is Putinr’s blueprint for Russian Expansion in 2024.
He is awaiting US elections while he continues to build forces and capabilities in Belarus for an assault on the 3 Baltic states.
This is why the production of the majority of Russia’s T90’s are not being used in Ukraine. They have been headed for Belarus. Where many of the former Wagner group is assembled.
Why is this important to Putin ?
2 main reasons.1- An ability to project naval power in that region
2- Non-artic ice ports for exporting energy
Something he can not obtain in the sea of Japan because even that conflicts with China, Japan.
Peace ? According to the 1856 Paris peace accord, RU is not suppose to have a Navel base in Sevastopol.
According to the 1991 agreement, it was at Ukraine’s discretion.
Nobody is going to trust a peace plan except Russia because they intend to break it anyway.
It wants Crimea for the same reasons and will likely risk it all to keep it.
This will escalate, like a chess game, only the ponds have moved forward to allow room for the major pieces to maneuver.
Trump has been setting the stage for non US intervention for NATO members if Putin invades the Baltic’s. Right on cue.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania know very well what life is like to be under Russian control and have been the strongest supporters of Ukraine in treasure up to this point.
I remember reading somewhat an text from this and some other interviews in the 90’s when the USSR was ending.
It took me many years of searching to find any remnant of it as I noticed just what was happening in US society was the result of this as Putin has revived this from the KGB archives.
So, I invite you to watch it ‘ALL’ for proper context.
I will say that this of course is the old KGB plan. In the current plan, they use internal patriotism as a tool, just as they have done across the EU using immigration as the prime kick-starting issue, but anything that can divide people along any lines and keeps them fighting with each other keeps them from looking much at the perpetrator. I never looked very close to the exact tactics they used in Central/South America in the 80’s, but they were active down there and suspect they still are playing their cards there as well.
And this which is along the same line. Someone else reviving it thinking the same.
39 years ago, a KGB defector chillingly predicted modern America
Right now Jan 2023, Putler needs to send 25k new recruits PER MONTH to the line just to keep up with his losses.
It can be said he can keep up that rate for now.
The problem is that there is not enough ‘experience’ in the field making tactical decisions.
And what there is, has been mostly overturned by political decisions. These are the areas of the highest losses.
That leaves you with whatever training you provided between recruitment and deployment. A set-up for failure.
I will compare that just a bit to a resent event where 2 M-2’s came to battle with a T-90.
When they were suddenly in short range of the T-90, one of them scooted being so surprised, the other was left with no escape and not much choice but to attack or be taken out by the massive smooth-bore gun.
An interview with M-2 commander revealed he was a fresh recruit (2 weeks) in the M2, having only left his training in Germany weeks before this engagement.
Out of the armor piercing ammo, he was left with standard rounds.
He said he remembered all of his training very well and went straight to “blind” the T90 operator by striking the reactive armor near his sights with the 25mm gun they have with the remaining standard ammo. You can’t shoot if you can’t see. And then hammered the turret till it was out of control. It worked and the crew evacuated the T-90 and left after roaming blindly and striking a tree.
While this might not be an good example of experience, know that you need one of the two to have a chance to survive war.
Experience or training. Training is a pre-emptive way to gain experience you do not have.
Russia continues to have less of both. This is not a good recipe.
The whole while Ukraine is gaining in both mainly because of their survive-ability and that started with good training. But it also requires good medics near the line for experience to be realized.
You can’t gain experience if you don’t live long enough to achieve it.
And that is unlikely if you have little to no training. And not enough Medics in the field. A undervalued resource for Russia it seems.
It could be said that it’s hard to turn them into cannon fodder if they are trained well enough. So you might see what the intention is with new recruits.
6 months may be considered a crash course. These fellas might be lucky to get 3 months, and proper equipment for fighting or surviving.
You can see, walk and shoot, so you are on the line. Oh yea… duck when required.
Enough training to keep them alive and how to maneuver using the obstacles the environment provided up to the point of the highest risk and death.
Trust in command will eventually erode to the point they can not fight anymore.
Republicans can not really stand on the issue of immigration and the border.
For it is they who twice blocked bi-partisan deals for a fix in the last 20 years.
They do not really want a solution for they are able to take political advantage while supporting their low wage advocates that fund them.
It’s embedded in the party now.
While something needs done, you will get nowhere when you keep moving the bar to higher levels to stop any progress, and keep the political narrative. Rather than get a deal as a step in the right direction, you choose nothing. Gee, that makes sense now doesn’t it. This allows them to blame others for their own intended inaction ?
And we are about to go through a labor shortage, so, we need a fix before the status quo prevails once again. Get’m legal and paying taxes, or continue to foot the bill for cheap ass companies. Because the status quo is about to get far worse.
But without the immigration issue, republicans have few issues. They don’t like that reality.
I will not detail what has happened in this instance as the media should have informed you.
But it’s all history in the making. This indictment pertaining to classified documents taken with him as he exited office.
SO, many do not agree with this, but can only argue process or personal attacks.
(this is always cause for alarm because it indicates you have no facts on your side)
Let’s look at the law on this case in a different light…
If Trump left office with the ‘RESOLUTE DESK’ instead, how would you feel about that ?
It is not classified.
But the government would be asking for it back as well.
If he said he didn’t have it. What would you then do knowing otherwise ?
If you knew he did and went through the courts to get it back after multiple attempts to get it back without any fanfare, what would you think of that?
He keeps hiding his possession of it from the government. Until they come for it and get it back.
Then he makes a claim it is his…’BELONGS TO HIM’ And the government had no right to come for it.
Would you ever ask ‘what use that important does he have for it’ ?
Know that the documents belong to the government, classified or not, just like any other property. These are not documents he authored, but even if he did, the government would own them as well.
Even though personal communications with family are excused.
And they were not some low level of classification, but the highest there is.
Just how can you justify any of it ? YOU CAN’T !
Attacking people and process is not going to help.
The government has the evidence for every charge. Given the profile of the accused, you wouldn’t dare charge without the strong evidence of it. What you think about it can not produce a charge.
Failure to do so invites total espionage going forward. Secrets for sale !
Also know he has not come clean on any of it and there are still missing classified documents the government does not want to admit to as to give them value.
And it is not known if he made digital copies of any of it.
So, an election has consequences. And the mid-term election of 2022 is showing us that.
It’s the Trump factor. So, he is to announce he is running again. Not because he actually thinks he can win. No.
But he will give it his best shot as he knows how to do it his way. Burning down the houses in his march.
He is running to divert against his others troubles. Thinking he will be able to keep investigations and indictments a bit further away. At least if it can create delay, it will serve his purpose. Who knows what other opportunity will present more options for ‘getting away with it’. That seems to be his art. It does not matter to him what happens to the party, he is in a fight of his life trying to keep from loosing it all and possibility of prison.
The republicans want him to go away but do not want to say it. After all he could commit murder on the street in front of cameras and seemingly explain it all away and keep 30%+ of support.
So, politicians of his own party fear what he can do to their support. They all have future ambitions.
The reason he made it to this point after being tossed from office is his own party will not stand up to him and call him out when he is wrong.
They intended (Mitch McConnell) to let the democrats do it for them. Keep their hands clean of it.
So, where are we now…
At the time of writting this, The senate will be at least democratic of 50 seats, perhaps 51. The house as I projected, might only see a republican majority of 3 seats. No red wave and that by itself is against any normal situation we have seen in American politics.
They can’t do much more than saber rattle. Why do I say that?
Do you understand that the party is divided into 3 main groups and it will be very hard to get a consensus to do anything.
Look at what they did in the final years of Obama with a higher majority. Repeal the healthcare act how many dozens of times.
But it does give them control of spending. That is if they can get a consensus inside their party. As all spending bills have to start in the House.
That can weld a good bit of power if they can keep it together. But in reality it means that we are likely to see our spending limit at top issue and paying our debt in crisis.
Same old stuff they keep beating themselves up on and not a winning method.