Rubio and Trump has hinted as of late that if negotiations do not fruit in weeks, The US will pull out.
A convenient way to pull out of something you can not look like a winner at. Because with the methods used, he can’t.
The truth is, nobody asked them to get involved in this way.
And thus far Ukraine is the only party being extorted and punished for actually being in agreement to anything,
including that which is clearly outside of it’s own interest. Very little has been asked of Russia and nothing has ever been actually agreed to by them that was not quickly rebutted right after.
And even if that was the case, nobody expects them to honor anything.
They always find a way to false flag their way out of any agreement.
So,
The skinny is that if Ukraine does not outright SURRENDER, and give up it’s wealth to some unknown US entity,
they will begin pulling the rug out from under them.
Not limited to the US officially recognizing Crimea as RUSSIAN.
And of course, that breaks a US deal to defend Ukraine when it agreed to give up it’s NUKES.
Being a deal broken, Ukraine now could go forward reconstituting it’s nuclear program. And have all the rights to do so.
For those that do not like Ukraine, how much more do you not like a Ukraine with NUKES ?
What comes around, goes around. Much more complicated than many understand. It’s not in those headlines.
You don’t bring checkers to a game of chess. King Me or I will go home ? GO HOME !
So far, behind the scenes, members of the Senate have prevented this.
But Putin is pushing the WIMP/47 around. Yea, looks can be deceiving, he may be actually just be doing Putin’s bidding as part of the team.
That does not really look like a deception.
He has divided the NATO alliance with trade issues. No matter the method, Putin has been trying to do this for decades.
The proper way to have achieved one of the largest threats to future economic dominance would be to invest in future tech.
Much of what you are seeing for China’s coming dominance is just that.
They subsidized research and development. Care to take guess at how many failures there were ?
They did this in EV’s but more importantly the tech that makes them feasible. Starting with the battery tech.
CATL may seem the dominate player right now, but even they have their own internal competition. BYD.
BYD started out as a battery co, and got into the EV market for they were a leading innovator of battery tech without a good market, so they helped create it.
China leads the world in energy dense battery tech. and seeing the future need for material for that, manipulated the needed material in advance.
You can see the US trying to catch-up after the play was near over in a mineral deal with Ukraine. Who does this help ? At what cost ?
I know many of those on the right might say how many failed solar projects we wasted money on. But it drives the tech forward.
Nobody seems to fault Elon Musk for so many failed rockets before they finally got it right and dominate in advance for it.
So he understands it. Why don’t you. The money invested is actually tiny in compare to the benefits achieved.
So, even if now you realize the woes of our ways,
You have an opportunity to catch-up in the battery market with sodium-ion batteries.
No, SIB’s will likely never have the energy density needed for a EV or a aircraft, but they have many more uses like power grid storage. Where the energy density does not need to be that high. They do not travel and the weight does not really matter. There is no monopoly on SODIUM !
This is just a example of just one thing that would have made a difference.
Back in the 90’s the government put up a million dollar prize for the first tech co that could produce a teraFLOP.
That is a computer math co-processor that could preform 1000 million floating point calculations per second.
You enjoy the result of that drive today even if you can’t see it.
Money well invested. Many co’s were trying and failed, but someone did it.
We are 1000 times past that now.
You can’t walk around with only a stick. You gotta have plenty of carrots.
Tax breaks are normally given to incentivize behavior. Even though we now hand them out to our political friends.
That is not an investment in our future. Just free cheese ! No return on investment.
Big Energy has promoted this mindset for failure because they would be the looser. And they have the money to do it. But/And they could have done it themselves.
Yes, world equities are different than just US equities. But not much.
And futures is not an exact reflection on what will happen. It is measure of what people think will happen.
But everyone should know that what is actually happening is the US has made itself ‘LESS RELEVANT’ partner going forward as other nations make trade deals around us.
In the future, the US will have less bargaining power to influence.
Leaving it with a low position to make the map as they feel fit for the future.
And at this point, what is lost may be lost forever. At least taking a decade to claw back. But it must have a turning point somewhere.
If you ever feared a shrinking US influence, well, that is what has been created here. Better or worse, we own that now.
They could have got away with a lot, and did, but trust is everything. This is making everyone try to protect their own, with distrust to the US.
To think of the rhetoric that was handed to Obama when he tried to achieve a free trade zone in Asia for the US which we are not part of now because of that.
Who gets the blame for that?
If Obama was wrong to eliminate trade barriers, what the fuck is this.
The US has no moral standing now. We have abused our power and now lack trust.
The world will now manage this without us unless something changes.
As long as POTUS has the power to do this on his own, with little warning, money will not be coming back. It is called fear. Something must have a element of predictability.
It will find more profitable investments with less risk, and perhaps higher growth rates because ours will be going down.
Of course the admin’s way out of the legality for this is to call these ‘sanctions’ for he has not the power to TAX.
But it is what it is. He has never publicly called them sanctions.
If you spend it, it was a tax. Money is allocated by Congress. Sanctions is assets held. It is not yours to spend. So, the moment he uses any of it, he has broken the law. Congress better get busy authorizing this or this is impeachable.
A new matter to tie the courts up even some more.
Russia has been sanctioned. The US and EU hold RU assets. They will have to give the money back sometime. But they can hold the assets indefinitely. They can do anything they want with interest on those assets. Not part of sanctions. Iran had the same and quite a fuss was made when Obama had to give the sanctioned money back. I believe the right blamed Hillary at the time.
Everyone has their favorite ‘TELL’ about what will happen with the economy.
But nobody really has a crystal ball.
Some watch what they feel is the smart money and monkey see, monkey do.
How do you get that insider info ? You don’t.
It’s normally starring you in the face. But not for the timid or the uninformed about energy markets.
To understand any one market, it has to be looked at comprehensively.
But all those other markets rely on one thing. Energy.
You can use the futures market for oil. But that is not going to tell you what is actually going to happen.
Just what the future expectations for the demand of energy.
When they view a slower economic activity, demand will go down barring some other outside force and the potential for someone to cut production in the world supply.
And so the price of oil futures. Details to also watch to know the validity of the indicator. So you do need to know if any change is the result of production changes or even transportation of it.
Right now someone, it seems, even many are viewing economic output to lower worldwide as the price of oil has fallen $5 in 5 hours. And the trading day is not over.
This guide has always severed me well, but not really telling the future, but rather what other big money thinks of it.