By the time I wrote this, the current upward trend reversed itself on the price of oil. We were told the increase in gas/oil prices were from a weak dollar.
Now normally I could understand that thinking for many commodities but this is something that someone is going to have to send me some feedback on as I do remember some of my history. That is to say, just after we went off the gold standard, the Nixon Administration made a deal with O.P.E.C. to tie the price of crude to the U.S. Dollar.
This was a very smart move as it stabilized the price of oil here in the states and for the world. But it also means that if other nations want to buy oil, they will be buying it in U.S. Dollars effectively meaning that they need to buy Dollars to buy oil.
This also means that our “Green Backs” are now backed by “OIL”.
So why, when we are buying oil in dollars and oil is traded in U.S. Dollars worldwide, should the value of our currency change the price of oil for us in the U.S.?
It does makes sense for other nations who also buy oil because if the Dollar falls against their currency, it makes their oil purchase less expensive as it takes less of their money to make ours thus more bang for the buck so to speak. But why should it bother the U.S. prices? Someone out there please explain this to me!
For no matter what the Dollar does against other moneys, it still costs us $xx USD per barrel.
If it were not for the U.S. war effort in Iraq and Afghanistan, we would be at a 30 year low in the consumption of oil. Just in the case you did not know it, the U.S. military is the single biggest user of oil in the world. This is why the Pentagon is looking to simplify fuel formats. Meaning that they only wish to carry 2 or 3 fuels in the field. Gasoline is now gone, Diesel (fuel oil #2) Jet Fuel (JP#2) are now the mainstay and soon we will have production in the U.S. making these from coal sources as a matter of national security.
In any case, the oil market is like a “HYPOCHONDRIAC” looking for the next thing to fear that oil consumption or production might change .01% in a week or a year. If it continues to go up, kiss economic recovery goodbye.
It will be interesting to see what Morgan Stanley will do with all the oil it has sitting off shore in tankers waiting for the price to go up even higher. Something they are promoting as the oil is not on the market for sale thus making a short fall in inventories. Nice to see my bailout tax dollars doing something. (see Oil Contango Post)
Watch-out, if we have a hurricane hit the gulf while Iran gets vocal again at the same time a slight uptick in oil consumption, we could see crude at $180 and the economy and banks busted again.
We have been hearing all the arguments for a merger between Yahoo and MSN and they basically come down to one that is the same excuse we have heard for all the banking mergers of the 90’s & up along with many other industry’s we now wish never happened.
What is wrong with this is fairly fundamental. It is based on the idea in the free market that you should build a better mouse trap but has become if you can’t build a better mouse trap, buy your competitor out or put them out of business by any means possible to get more market share as we do not seem to be smart enough to do it on are own.
By allowing this idea to fester even more, you will find yourself with only two choices and no real innovation as the better mouse traps that come along will not be able to stand up to start and compete as teams of lawyers by very wealthy company’s can make it so very difficult in the Patent, Trademark and Copyright offices as well as the court system. It does not matter if they win, they will cost you more than your new company starting costs and you never make it off the ground. Please look up the history of the “Tucker” automobile as that is when this stuff started to be so fruitful.
Just ask Microsoft, they have been very successful at it for many years but were at least challenged some in the E.U. courts. The problem for my statements is that no one will ever notice what they are missing. It is like preventative medicine or maintenance that you can’t measure failures that never happen. You only need to look at the Netscape story to realize this but Microsoft has done this with more than 1 industry that they were not initially interested in till the money showed-up and then they could not dominate so they destroyed the industry by taking the profit out for others that had made good money doing what they were not smart enough to do on their own.
Who would think of starting a new Search engine now? You would have a hard time raising venture capitol for a launch of anything of the size needed to just get off the ground if you allow only two giants. What would happen if somewhere else in the world they actually do build that better mouse trap as it would be easier there, should we allow Microsoft and Google to merge. Do not expect any new Google’s here. Its B.S.
What is at stake here is really the future of Online Advertising and True results from your search, not contorted results based on advertising and user search terms.
Microsoft has made its best attempt to build a better search engine now called BING.com. Why do they need Yahoo? Its all about the ad dollars and market share of them folks. I’m sure Yahoo could afford to to some revamping if it had not spent so much time & money defending itself against a hostile Microsoft take-over a short while ago.
Imagine only two banks in your zipcode or only two retailers. How do you like your choices now?
***Moot Point = What you really meant to search for was “a gun pointed at your head” ***
Yes I would accept a merger if Microsoft were split-up into 3 comany’s
1 Operating systems & Networking
2 Application software
3 Internet Apps & Advertising
This should have been done back in ’03
It shall be interesting to see if the Open Source Software world of Linux will squish Microsoft at there own game or will they be strong enough to lobby congress for some protection against the tactics that they themselves started. The future will tell.
Update:08/18>
Looks as if I struck a nerve with someone as I have been told that you can not find this site on Bing.com anymore, I checked, seems you can not. Even if you type the url in directly. Yea…. good for who?
To much control by so few. Think of what this could do in politics?
Still standing tall with Google and Yahoo but for how long with Yahoo?
I am always looking ahead to what will be the next tech wonder and while I do not like making my predictions public (’cause no one understands the tech or its ability to perpetuate itself) I have been correct much more than 65% of the time on the possibilities that would be delivered to the real world in near (10 years) future terms.
So not much boohaha about me now saying what some now know, True 3D technology for your TV is coming very soon and I mean very very soon as in the next 3 years it will be the hottest Christmas time purchase provided the world economy does not fall apart in the mean time.
What does surprise me is that if you know the history of computer graphics, you will know that the two largest industries that drove the computer graphics market in the 80’s and 90’s was #1 porn and #2 games. Then you might expect that the same industries to drive this new 3D market. Like a horse race, I would now say that the gaming industry is in the lead. Soon to be #2 in the driver of the market is 3D LCD-HDTV but I can’t imagine porn being left out just yet. I think that industry is just asleep at the wheel as it has been making mega profits from the web which still leads me to they are just asleep at the wheel period! Someone will make a profit out of this and it will drive sales of 3D Tv through the roof and drive the cost of 3D TV down for the rest of us as happened in the computer world.
Not that the world needs more porn on the internet but I find it remarkable that a industry that has so much money to invest in its own future has not caught the new tech as folks would buy it over the 2D porn that has saturated the web. Would you not attempt 3D porn to stand out from the crowd if that was your industry. I am certain that by the time you hear of 3D Porn, 3D TV will be in your living room. Enough ’bout that porn stuff!
They would not be the only industry sleeping at the wheel. Investors in all areas of Tech world still think of 3D as sitting in a movie theater wearing those funny blue and red cheap cardboard glasses. I would challenge you right now that you goggle “3D TV” and look at what your search engine brings to you for the first 4 pages of results. The Domain World that some folks describe as cybersquatters have already seen the light and like a good piece of real estate, it will be hard to get a domain name resembling anything starting with “3d”. So if you are thinking in investing in that area think again or think smarter ahead. I made my investments in 3D some years ago.
With the addition of Sony’s Blu-Ray disks, there should be enough space on a disk for some great HD 3D movies but I would suppose once 3D TV is in 50% of homes, we will need a new higher density disk (a prediction for 2014). If you were a 8 track quadraphonic or cd4 (4 channel record disc) music buff some years ago you would already know that a great opportunity was lost when audio CD’s came to the market and 4 channel sound was not an added feature as the discs had plenty of room to do so (one of my biggest failed predictions that I still have not got over).
So, in late 2012 it will be 3D Computer Games followed by 3D TV Sports with 3D porn video at a close 3rd.
I have seen the new 3D tech work and it is quite remarkable now and can only get better! Go See It for yourself.
The industry does have a few format wars to battle but 3D Flix will soon be everywhere. Just ask Dreamworks !
What, want a new long prediction… HoloGraphic TV ( H3D TV ) by 2017 if it does not eat your brain watching it.
UPDATE>>> Found on web… Maybe not asleep at the wheel?
First let us assume that this is the biggest political issue that has been on the table in the last 30 years and one could also assume that it is important to get it right.
The proposed plans that come out of Congress, some of which should never have started, have have allowed the Right Wing to feast on disinformation of a real bill of reform. The only alternative Obama has if they succeed in squashing a creation of what he wants (that congress probably will not deliver) is to do this in two or three steps if he wants to get it right.
Problem for Obama is he feels that the only time he has to do it is while the Democrats control congress but is not true as his own party is as much of the problem as the Republicans because in Congress, the Company’s (health care in this instance) rule and there is a election coming and everyone wants campaign money from them.
So the first step is to make reforms to the current system this year. Some retro active when other parts are implemented.
Next year (before elections) adopt a framework for the new system of health care.
3rd year, begin adopting the the tax structure needed for the new system. In this way, it will not matter who controls congress they will be bound to find a way to pay for the new system and we will have enough time to get it right the first time and the economy should be in shape enough to pay for it.
Obama should watch the wording of legislation crafted in Congress even if his own party is in control as the ever so slightest wording can leave a large hole in the system that could benefit health care providers,insurance and drug company’s.
Many Presidents have been duped over the years for proper legislation and the only folks that loose is the American Public. He needs to be willing to “call-out” bad wording so the blame for it is known to the public. That should help make Congress think twice but all to often these things are not realized until well after the Bills pass.
In general, I do not think most folks believe the two most important things about current health care.
1 Everyone is paying for those that can not afford heath care, mostly by The Taxpayer and those that have insurance.
2 The current system will go down the tubes for everyone if something is not done in the next 3-6 years.
Yes this is do-able but it is most important to get it right the first time than to just do something even if it is wrong.
People will always fear what they do not know, problem is the only folks defining it for them is those that oppose any changes to it. These folks leading the charge are in the pockets of the above mentions companies who have been raping the current system as they are part of those that pay massive bonuses to those in the upper end of the company’s for pinching a few more million bucks out at taxpayer expence.
Obama needs to do a “Ronald Reagan” style talk with the people and explain what it takes in a bill to get past his desk and take on the wackos criticisms “head on” and direct to the public. The public fear is being manufactured for them. He needs to take it on directly and to the point and in front of America all at once if he is to proceed before this disinformation gets out of control and may be close now.
For one major individual I was listening to on the radio (popular), was stating that we would have long lines waiting to get a MRI ??? Well to me that beats them sitting there doing nothing when no one could afford it as they could be used to properly diagnose problems early thereby saving everyone some money and life. Whats that, your plan covers them now. But for how long, for how much deducible in the future?
If nothing is done the only folks that will be getting good health care will be Congress and those provided by the company’s that have been raping the system.
If you are looking for a good indicator of real growth in the economy, look no further than the growth of the Internet.
Yes after all the corporate mergers have stifled the economic growth by downsizing, closing redundancies and lack of innovations in real (not money) products, the true sign of a rebound is in smaller start-ups. This time those start-ups will have a very strong if not complete web presence.
If you need a poster child for this concept, you need only look at the fate of Newspapers but they are not alone.
If you wish to gauge this, you need only to watch the Domain Industry. The dot COM, dot NET and dot INFO sales to end users. Who are these “END USERS”? Many of them are folks that have been disaffected (laid-off or let go) by the companies that were part of all the merger activity but many are those who fear just that and are getting a jump on the action. An example might be the use of www.steppingladder.com as a employment site. A group of one to three folks could run such a sight and provide as much service as a full employment agency. The low overhead of such a site on the internet is something the corporate world just has not been able to grasp.
By not preparing for the new type of competition that does not include buying-out those who are better at it than you has sealed their fate for their margins are better. The list goes on and on.
Some of the places were you may read on this action would be The Domain Name Journal and The Domain Name Wire. They will give you some insight as to the early indicators of the industry which continues to grow despite the rest of the economy. You only need to watch the growth of advertising dollars to see that. Where is a good place to buy such names? Bido.com, Sedo.com, or register your own name if available at godaddy.com and others.
Contrary to some belief, the best domains for start-ups is to have a 1,2 or 3 word domain that is memorable and preferably less than 18 letters. If you advertise in traditional media, you must leave an impression of that name on the folks to get them to your site when they are sitting at the computer.
If you watch actions on these types of names that are being sold, you will find an increasing amount of them are being sold to end users as compared to those who buy them as a future investment to those that may want them as a speculative action. Kinda like speculating in the real estate market.
The real question for our future growth is what will be done to these company’s that are really to big when face with real competition again. They are so overweight on the top end with high wages and benefits to the upper management with no real innovation in actual real products. I fear we may be bailing them all out because of their size unless once again they buy their way out by buying this new competition. Where will that lead us?
Keep watching the fate of Newspapers for the new model. This surely has only just begun.