Ukraine sent hundreds of drones over the border targeting refineries and energy infrastructure to quash Russia’s ability to finance war production. Seems the primary target this round.
And of course this right before Russian elections. Where Putin once again rattles NUKES.
This announcement sounded a bit weaker than any before. I invite anyone to read the text of it. Because of the election ? It’s your guess but surprising anyway.
Ukraine has been pretty consistent at taking out energy infrastructure over the last 4-5 months now. Both in terms of fuel for the front and export ability.
It can be said that Russia had just as many issues heating their homes as Ukraine did this past winter. But only in certain areas. But nothing like the year before for Ukraine.
That is due to the fact they can not launch as many missiles from the Black Sea or west Crimea. It’s stuck launching them from sub’s in the Black Sea and land based launches that come from the homeland or areas around the sea of Azov where air protection for the bridge is high.
So, the impact from last night likely will not be seen or felt for at least 30 days. But if Ukraine can preform these even once a month, it would be devastating. I think they have the ability to do them up to 3 times a month. But likely a delay to obtain intel on how effective each was to know if they need to re-target the same area. This would delay them a bit.
As it is now, Russia will need to re-allocate resources to defend key infrastructure. I’m sure they are scratching their heads right now to come up with an answer, but I think they are running low on options. They simply do not have the ability to counter high numbers of these drones.
As a discharge petition gets started in the HOUSE to force the foreign aid bill, which looks to have a reasonable chance of not only forcing the vote, but passing because of the days ago announcement of one GOP member (Buck) that was set to not run for re-election, is now going to resign Saturday. Meaning the GOP can only loose 2 of it’s own members votes to block this. I suspect that when some know it’s going to pass, they will jump on board to save face with voters in their home district.
Fearing a GOP failure, again, they have had a time to create their own and try to get Border issues they rejected earlier injected again, only they know are unlikely to get past the democrats to confuse and quash the whole thing again. Boy, if they would only put as much effort into actually doing something over blocking everything. https://www.axios.com/2024/03/12/dis…se-ukraine-aid
But meanwhile, Biden found the last dirt on the floor at the pentagon of 300 million in leftovers to send Ukraine in some stop-gap weapons. Likely artillery shells, ATACMS, HIMARS GMRLS among those. Perhaps only a months worth. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/u…raine-war.html
Here is Putinr’s blueprint for Russian Expansion in 2024.
He is awaiting US elections while he continues to build forces and capabilities in Belarus for an assault on the 3 Baltic states.
This is why the production of the majority of Russia’s T90’s are not being used in Ukraine. They have been headed for Belarus. Where many of the former Wagner group is assembled.
Why is this important to Putin ?
2 main reasons.1- An ability to project naval power in that region
2- Non-artic ice ports for exporting energy
Something he can not obtain in the sea of Japan because even that conflicts with China, Japan.
Peace ? According to the 1856 Paris peace accord, RU is not suppose to have a Navel base in Sevastopol.
According to the 1991 agreement, it was at Ukraine’s discretion.
Nobody is going to trust a peace plan except Russia because they intend to break it anyway.
It wants Crimea for the same reasons and will likely risk it all to keep it.
This will escalate, like a chess game, only the ponds have moved forward to allow room for the major pieces to maneuver.
Trump has been setting the stage for non US intervention for NATO members if Putin invades the Baltic’s. Right on cue.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania know very well what life is like to be under Russian control and have been the strongest supporters of Ukraine in treasure up to this point.
I remember reading somewhat an text from this and some other interviews in the 90’s when the USSR was ending.
It took me many years of searching to find any remnant of it as I noticed just what was happening in US society was the result of this as Putin has revived this from the KGB archives.
So, I invite you to watch it ‘ALL’ for proper context.
I will say that this of course is the old KGB plan. In the current plan, they use internal patriotism as a tool, just as they have done across the EU using immigration as the prime kick-starting issue, but anything that can divide people along any lines and keeps them fighting with each other keeps them from looking much at the perpetrator. I never looked very close to the exact tactics they used in Central/South America in the 80’s, but they were active down there and suspect they still are playing their cards there as well.
And this which is along the same line. Someone else reviving it thinking the same.
39 years ago, a KGB defector chillingly predicted modern America
Right now Jan 2023, Putler needs to send 25k new recruits PER MONTH to the line just to keep up with his losses.
It can be said he can keep up that rate for now.
The problem is that there is not enough ‘experience’ in the field making tactical decisions.
And what there is, has been mostly overturned by political decisions. These are the areas of the highest losses.
That leaves you with whatever training you provided between recruitment and deployment. A set-up for failure.
I will compare that just a bit to a resent event where 2 M-2’s came to battle with a T-90.
When they were suddenly in short range of the T-90, one of them scooted being so surprised, the other was left with no escape and not much choice but to attack or be taken out by the massive smooth-bore gun.
An interview with M-2 commander revealed he was a fresh recruit (2 weeks) in the M2, having only left his training in Germany weeks before this engagement.
Out of the armor piercing ammo, he was left with standard rounds.
He said he remembered all of his training very well and went straight to “blind” the T90 operator by striking the reactive armor near his sights with the 25mm gun they have with the remaining standard ammo. You can’t shoot if you can’t see. And then hammered the turret till it was out of control. It worked and the crew evacuated the T-90 and left after roaming blindly and striking a tree.
While this might not be an good example of experience, know that you need one of the two to have a chance to survive war.
Experience or training. Training is a pre-emptive way to gain experience you do not have.
Russia continues to have less of both. This is not a good recipe.
The whole while Ukraine is gaining in both mainly because of their survive-ability and that started with good training. But it also requires good medics near the line for experience to be realized.
You can’t gain experience if you don’t live long enough to achieve it.
And that is unlikely if you have little to no training. And not enough Medics in the field. A undervalued resource for Russia it seems.
It could be said that it’s hard to turn them into cannon fodder if they are trained well enough. So you might see what the intention is with new recruits.
6 months may be considered a crash course. These fellas might be lucky to get 3 months, and proper equipment for fighting or surviving.
You can see, walk and shoot, so you are on the line. Oh yea… duck when required.
Enough training to keep them alive and how to maneuver using the obstacles the environment provided up to the point of the highest risk and death.
Trust in command will eventually erode to the point they can not fight anymore.
Republicans can not really stand on the issue of immigration and the border.
For it is they who twice blocked bi-partisan deals for a fix in the last 20 years.
They do not really want a solution for they are able to take political advantage while supporting their low wage advocates that fund them.
It’s embedded in the party now.
While something needs done, you will get nowhere when you keep moving the bar to higher levels to stop any progress, and keep the political narrative. Rather than get a deal as a step in the right direction, you choose nothing. Gee, that makes sense now doesn’t it. This allows them to blame others for their own intended inaction ?
And we are about to go through a labor shortage, so, we need a fix before the status quo prevails once again. Get’m legal and paying taxes, or continue to foot the bill for cheap ass companies. Because the status quo is about to get far worse.
But without the immigration issue, republicans have few issues. They don’t like that reality.
I will not detail what has happened in this instance as the media should have informed you.
But it’s all history in the making. This indictment pertaining to classified documents taken with him as he exited office.
SO, many do not agree with this, but can only argue process or personal attacks.
(this is always cause for alarm because it indicates you have no facts on your side)
Let’s look at the law on this case in a different light…
If Trump left office with the ‘RESOLUTE DESK’ instead, how would you feel about that ?
It is not classified.
But the government would be asking for it back as well.
If he said he didn’t have it. What would you then do knowing otherwise ?
If you knew he did and went through the courts to get it back after multiple attempts to get it back without any fanfare, what would you think of that?
He keeps hiding his possession of it from the government. Until they come for it and get it back.
Then he makes a claim it is his…’BELONGS TO HIM’ And the government had no right to come for it.
Would you ever ask ‘what use that important does he have for it’ ?
Know that the documents belong to the government, classified or not, just like any other property. These are not documents he authored, but even if he did, the government would own them as well.
Even though personal communications with family are excused.
And they were not some low level of classification, but the highest there is.
Just how can you justify any of it ? YOU CAN’T !
Attacking people and process is not going to help.
The government has the evidence for every charge. Given the profile of the accused, you wouldn’t dare charge without the strong evidence of it. What you think about it can not produce a charge.
Failure to do so invites total espionage going forward. Secrets for sale !
Also know he has not come clean on any of it and there are still missing classified documents the government does not want to admit to as to give them value.
And it is not known if he made digital copies of any of it.