So, Putler has been making maneuvers with troops and hardware to the NATO border that has western media and annalists screaming invasion….
At time of writing, elections in Russia just passed the day before and surprise… they won.
What is really going on here is just a simple fact that Putler was and or is about to preform some sort of a false flag operation at NATO’s doorstep to provoke one or more members into some sort of action that he will justify a Russian National ‘call-up’ (draft) for the war in Ukraine. Go fight NATO… NOT!
But this can not happen till after the elections have passed, which they now have.
Putler needs the excuse, which it remains to be seen if the public will be OK with it. This is a very risky biz for him.
To actually pick a fight with NATO would be a act of suicide at this point as he can not muster enough hardware to fight Ukraine and does not have enough fuel supplies to even keep that short distance tenable. Crimea is all but officially severed and a drain for Russia to even keep people in food including his forces as people try to make their way to the Crimean Bridge to exit without fuel to do it. It has no power plants and no water except what can be delivered. Time is not on Russia’s side here. Slowly draining away.
I doubt Russia has as large a military as Iraq did before that war. Ukraine has chipped it away to a fraction of it’s former glory which may have been over stated to begin with.
The best defense is to scare everyone into thinking you are much larger than you are in fact. We can simply observe Russia’s struggles to understand where they really are at this moment in time.
A larger problem for Putler, there is nothing in the future that is likely going to change this trajectory. Death by a thousand cuts. And if he mobilizes, it could come from within without warning and quickly.