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Conclusions of CES 2014 – More Bandwidth Required

Trapped between the “TECH’ie” that I am, and an advocate for the consumer, leads me to the following conclusions from the International Consumer Electronics Show of 2014.

We seen a want, a need? and a push for 4K visual displays. Some Huge, some bendable and some both. While they are extremely nice and who would not want to watch things in such a high resolution that it almost looked like you could take a fruit from the screen and eat it. You are left with the following realities.

1 – Cost. While Sony introduced us to a 4k Hanycam priced at $2,000, you will spend $5K/10K to see it in 4k. OK, I’ll grant you that the price always comes down. But it takes a strong demand for the product and strong competition to do that. I predict that will take 3-5 years. And even longer if some other tech gets more demand in that time frame. Why Sony, LG and Samsung were not showing a cam/tv combo they could enjoy for $3500 while showing off their mammoth bendable displays very few will ever own is beyond me. A missed opportunity to drive it home.

2 – Content. Where are the movie productions? If not recorded in 4k, what is the point. It’s like having a car that can go 350 mph but no road can handle more than 150 mph. While Amazon, YouTube, Hulu and NetFlix are promising to fill that void. It brings us to the largest hurdle…

3 – Delivery. What device will I use to get this 4K high-res? DVD… Not big enough, Satellite… Can not happen with the existing satellites. The internet? Can’t happen yet. Why?

( don’t this sound a lot like what happened to 3D )

The why has been a long running story of history. While the Cable Companies are the largest provider of “high bandwidth” service. They have been investing in owning all the movie houses that have or generate new content and have not been investing that money in high bandwidth to it’s existing infrastructure or expanding it’s existing consumer base in the way of providing internet services to rural America.

If you remember a few years back, Comcast made a point to bring a case forward to throttle back or slow the speeds of those who were “high users of bandwidth”. I understood exactly why they were making a court case at that time before most anyone understood the implications.

They seen the trend of users getting their content from the internet. A competitive force but they are also in control of that delivery of service. If you can not reasonably enjoy that movie or show brought to you on the internet, your only alternative is to get it from them.

The use of video compression technology for that new demanding hi-res video called VP9 / H.265 standard backed by Google/YouTube and others will certainly help in bandwidth demand, but it’s still not enough.

While it is a great start of an answer to a problem, you can’t get to the underlying problem that the cable companies are in control here. They will find excuse after excuse, some having little reality in fact for problems they themselves created for delivering this in a viable way. Hoping it will go away and or just delaying it. We are talking about Billions of dollars here.

If you never really understood the concept of the need for “net neutrality“, here it is staring you in the face. When that issue last surfaced, it was demonized by those in control through groups that seemed like they were on your side while misrepresenting what it really meant in encouragement for you to lobby congress to stop it. This kept the money flowing to candidates in Washington and those petitions gave them a excuse for giving in and protecting the Cable Co’s from competition. Everyone got off the hook.

One of two things is true here. Congress is not intelligent enough to understand the implications of legislation they create on the behalf of the industry lobbyist who have all the money. Or they know and just don’t care.

We should be able to benefit from the new video compression in a standard (720p/1080p) res and the birth of new internet movies and shows will finally be delivered in spite of the cable co’s. WebTV falls into this same niche but is likely to succeed because of the lower bandwidth required. But for how long before the Cable Co’s declare they have not enough bandwidth to provide for all those folks watching TV in a internet stream. Throttling back those that use it more. Now, they have the law on their side.

Can you really see the Cable Co’s investing more money in a tech that is competitive to 80% of their everyday revenue. A big conflict of interest as warned by many, years before we got here to see it in action.

The only way we will truly fix this problem is to have more Internet providers competing for the same real estate areas in the US. Nothing else will work when you have the folks who own all the content also own the pipe that delivers alternatives.

Presently I could have a choice of 2 providers. One telco based that can hardly deliver bandwidth for a 1080p video and a cable co that no longer promises a minimum service level of anything but is at least twice as fast as the telco. The same 2 competitive choices I have had for over 15 years.

It is also possible that satellite delivery of 4k tv could happen if the FCC goes along with some major changes and someone invests in some new satellites. That could take 5 years. Many things could happen in the time it takes to deploy that kind of tech. It’s hard to see that investment before the US has at least 10% saturation of 4k tv’s in homes. So 5 years from a unknown starting point in the future… …The internet is the only reasonable answer.

So if you want 4K TV to work for you, you will need to lobby Congress for net neutrality and more competition in internet services. It’s the only way to get the bandwidth required and some freedom of choice and affordability for Broadband service.

If Google, Amazon, Hulu, Apple and others are truly interested in this succeeding, they will need to “lead the charge” by lobbing Congress to change the monopoly rules currently in effect and becoming a Internet Service Providers themselves.

For myself, Since I refuse to reward bad behavior, I will be happy to watch any original internet content, even delivered at or under 1K until the broadband provider throttles me out.

Till then, enjoy your 5-10K investment in 4K as a conversation piece.

T-Mobile gets Best Competitve Practice Award

After several takeover attempts and one failed merger with AT&T, T-Mobile (T-Mo) has been a target in a bunch of sights for a while now. The latest from Sprint…

Sprint… … Really ? they do not even use the same phone technology ???

It goes without saying that’s a merger that should never happen as Verizon should never had been able to acquire AllTel. It’s just anti-competitive.

As I always say, those that can not innovate, acquire those that can.

I say things are looking up at T-Mo and hereby award them the best of 2013 in competitive practices.

Why?

With each of the three big cell-co’s having no competition except for AT&T and T-Mobile because of the similar technology used in their networks. Meaning, you can not take a phone used on sprint network and use it on the others even if the phone is unlocked.

T-Mo has been on top of their game in actually implementing LTE data networking. They are not touting their stuff, just doing it.

At the same time, they have broke the proverbial ICE by opening up handsets “unlocked” when not in contract. Allowing freedom to pick a new network when they fail to live up to what was promised in a one sided contract they they continue to change.

This promotes the idea of deliver the goods or I will go where they are. Instead of Promise the goods, get them under locked contract and deliver them by the time the contract is up.

When I bought my first iPhone at AT&T, when they first came out, I specifically asked if the phone would be unlocked after contract. I was told yes, that would not be a problem. This took 4+ years to make happen and I was not planning on moving, just wanted the freedom to if I wanted to. Or to be able to sell my device to folks that could use it on either network.

When I bought a iPhone 3G at AT&T, I was told that 3G data service was coming in a few months. Did not happen for 2+ years and by that time I was out of contract and they were advertising 4G service still undelivered 2 years later. Somewhere in the middle of the second two year contract, I had to accept new terms that disallowed me from joining a class-action law suites against them for their bad behaviors.

So I came to believe nothing that was said and began asking to see where it was in writing anywhere before you sell me a new dead end 4G service that I am stuck with for 2 years +. Needless to say, they can not “sell me” on anything anymore. their words are garbage.

Only in America can a company do this. Europe does not have this kind of behavior because they have rules. Europe also has better networks and better pricing for those services and those European company’s are making good money for it.

We in the US rank 3rd or lower for services provided and 1st for cost of them and those cell company’s have less rules to contend with in the US than anywhere in the world. Something is wrong with this picture.

For those that tout “buyer beware” to excuse the need for regulation I say ” It’s to late to beware when you are in the middle of a contract and you can not sue them for violating it”.

I plan to switch my network (all accounts) to T-Mobile just in reward of good business practices. As it turns out, I may get more service for less money. I certainly don’t like rewarding the tricky-dicks of the world. Some family members are likely to switch also.

As it turns out, AT&T is going out screaming. I have many I-Devices and while it looks good on the surface, there are still challenges unlocking my iPhones/iPads. So perhaps I may just reward T-Mo with my purchase of new ones.

“High Five T-Mo” I predict you will be the number 2 carrier by Sept of 2015 and running hot for Number One. But thank you for changing the Industry.

Competition is GOOD when you can find it.

Minimum Wage and Corporate Welfare

Sometimes we all have the same perspective but different opinions while looking at the same thing. In other words, We look at the same tree from the same point in the forest and see it differently.

With this issue, I would like to take you to many new places to look at the same tree. Some might call it thinking outside the forest (box). Most of us have been trained to only view it black or white. Move away from those that would tint your glasses to conform to one idea or the other. There are many colors in between. You must move outside the spot that was selected for you to see them.

Corporate Welfare has many shapes and sizes. Everyday I discover some that have been in front of my face everyday and did not see them for what they are. Some come about in slow unnoticeable ways and some are quick with the names changed to protect the guilty.

Let’s start a walk to a new position and have a look at that tree…

By suppressing wages that are in the best interest of corporate profits, eventually the point of economic growth around the wages (inflation) gradually makes you a fully qualified low income welfare case or, for better words, qualifying for government assistance to feed your family and keep a roof over your head.

Since those programs are taxpayer funded, Aren’t the rest of us just subsidizing the wages of working men and women who do not make enough to raise a family. Sparing that company the expense.

Corporations and the top 5% are paying less and less of their fair share of taxes in the name of jobs that they keep shedding. No CEO goes to the board with plans to create more jobs. They go with plans to create more profits. Jobs and higher wages run contrary to profits.

Here is a legitimate argument or MOOT for the increase of minimum wage. But, as we have all said, you can’t legislate morality. Especially to Corporate America. But you can provide a means to an end. Raising the wages will lower your tax burden and/or lower the amount we borrow as a nation to pay for services.

It seems a senseless way to go about making it right. The true conservative in me says you should not take government action unless it is absolutely needed. But I think it is, and fast.

I also believe that it should be automatically gauged to some government standard like the cost of living. That way, many do not suffer while we argue about it for years at a time. And by the time we act, it’s even worse for many more. To little to late for even a neutralizing effect.

Close one eye here…

Here is a strange fact. The government subsidizes the sugar industry and has for many decades to protect the native sugar companies from cheap foreign imports of it.

At the same time, we subsidize the creation of methanol from corn. Taking corn from food to industrial purposes raises the cost of food. You pay twice. Once for the subsidy and the second for the higher price for food. Corn products and by-products are used in almost all the processed food in your kitchen. Most of your sweets are sweetened with corn syrup.

Since you can make methanol much more than twice the efficiently from the same crops you make sugar from, why not remove both subsidies and let the sugar manufactures make methanol. We save three times over. A free market solution and a no brain’er.

Switch eyes…

Just about everything we consume here in the U.S. , the Drug Companies sell in other parts of the world also. Good for them that they can do that. But why are the same drugs being sold at a 20 to 80 percent price reduction over there. After all, they ship them from here to there, so why are they not more money over there…. The truth,

You are getting ripped-off or you are subsidizing drugs in other countries or both.

Just tilt your head here…

Every time we have a slump in the economy, the government reaches out to help with a tax break for companies that create new jobs. Most of the time, it is taken advantage of by everyone except who it was intended. Those currently employed by a company.

How so ?

When these come down the pike, they technically lay you off and hire you back with the tax break enhancing your employment to them. You may not have even missed a days work or know about it. Is that not a subsidy ? It’s a way for the government to give a bunch of companies a tax break and be supported by the public. The term smoke and mirrors comes to mind.

Wouldn’t it be nice to know what companies were getting what tax beaks since all of us who don’t get them are paying for them. Much of the tax savings is spent on overseas investment. Helping the domestic economy little if any.

Let’s move to a new spot and have a look…

Since I was on the issue of tax breaks let’s just have a look at what in general they do to the economy.

If we give a tax break to anyone for any reason, it means less revenue in the treasury to spend. Since we are not at the same time reducing our spending, we would be increasing our borrowing. Borrowing has a additional cost of interest compounding.

In addition to borrowing to cover the new shortfall, we need to increase revenue even more. So those that are paying taxes, need to pay more, now and in the future because we borrowed part of it.

So if you look at it the right way, tax breaks are not any different than spending more. Because you are borrowing to pay for it. Making a bunch of money for some to enjoy today while others pay for it in the future.

Back-up three steps…

What is a good tax break…

One that is temporary, serves a direct purpose in stimulating the economy or industry we need, But only in a area that is a strategic importance to the country. Otherwise “Capitalism” rules apply for a company just as we expect from it’s citizenry. Rise or fall on your own merits.

Example: Giving domestic automakers a “temporary” tax break when the entire or large portion of domestic production is at risk.

Realistically, how do you give a multinational company a tax break and know it benefits us domestically. How would you know it wasn’t just helping them cover losses outside the U.S. or allowing them to invest outside the U.S.

To often these temporary tax breaks get baked into the pie. The same goes for tax increases.

I see it all the time in local tax initiatives that were temporary, but turn into just a renewal of a levy that will not increase your taxes. No kidding, they should be going down as it was a temporary measure originally and expired. They won’t tell you that or the original wording that you passed. So you really don’t know just what you are renewing.

Anyone that would trick you into thinking something other than what it is, deserves nothing. No different is a politician, a car salesman or a corporation. But it happens everyday and will till folks demand something different. They call it buyer beware.

Cover your ears and close your mouth, open eyes wide…

A dangerous trend has been brewing in online selling. That is to take much of this “metadata” that is sometimes much more info than you think about you to figure out who you are and what kind of lifestyle you lead and how much money you have to spend.

If you want to see a “small example” of it, just go to Lowes.com or any national retail chain that you must select the store you are shopping at. First notice that they already know what store is close to you. Then price a handful of items and at least one appliance or part. Then switch stores to look at the same item and look at the price there.

The chain stores give varying reasons for this, but it’s all the same mud in my ears because “It’s never is the cost of a item plus a modest mark-up“. Most of the time it is “the highest price the market will support”. Gas, food or that refrigerator.

So are you paying more so it can be cheaper somewhere else or are you paying less by support from a patron in another store ?

The bigger problem with this “metadata collection” is, and I think we are very close to it now if not already, is when they know you are a potential “good spender” (have money) on the website. This can give you a better price than your neighbor who is poor. So he pays more so that they can lure you in for less as you are more likely to spend your money in abundance to the item you originally came to them for.

Price by demographic has been going on with many industries like insurance for quite some time now. Depending on where you live, how much you make equals how much you will pay.

What… the poor subsidizing the well to do? Oh… they do have studies to justify this so it’s OK.

This could create a big time class warfare in the future. But I wonder how they will explain it in a way that makes it OK to the masses when they are caught.

Some areas have special lanes of taxpayer funded highway that if you pay a little more toll, you get a lane of traffic to yourself. I wonder if the make enough from that to even resurface that lane ? Probably subsidized by the others.

Let’s move across the lake to look at this tree…

Most of the fortune 500 is doing a bunch of business outside the US. And many of them are producing their products overseas and shipping them here for sale. But who pays for the military that defends them while they are over there hood-winking a different population.

Don’t think this happens ?

Tell me why our military was used many times to go after hijacked oil tankers that were being held for ransom. They were not US ships and not flying the US flag until we requested that they flew them to make it legal. But they were part of a tanker company owned by a major US bank.

I find it offensive to know that the hijacked oil tankers were just a sitting target. Doing nothing but storing oil that was being kept off the market to drive the cost of future oil up. This story continues but you still pay for it. In taxes to defend the ships and higher prices at the pump. Corporate welfare at it’s best.

Who was it that said… some folks rob you with a gun, and the others with a pen.

If you look at any of the fore-mentioned, please tell me where the rule of supply and demand enters the picture. I am a capitalist but this is not capitalism.

I could go on, but we have seen enough to summarize what this tree looks like .

I think the most compelling reason that corporate America, and those that make the most from them, should be paying more in every way, is just the fact that they have benefited the most from the security “we” provide, domestically and internationally for their profits to climb.

Yes, the taxpayer and our troops should get the credit for providing the best business environment here and abroad. That good, stable business environment costs a lot of money to provide.

Isn’t that worth at least as much as the guy who has to defend it when it is in jeopardy and even more if you are the largest beneficiary of it?

If the answer to that was no, you need to ask yourself right now, just how much more in taxes are you are willing to pay to keep your job.

The Year For Consumer Technology 2014

2014 is going to full of surprises for everyone and just to note that it is just the beginning of rapid new tech and the speed that it gets delivered to you is changing at the same time…

First, Let’s start off with a really cool video to entertain you that has nothing to do with what I’m about to talk about… except that the evolution of technology can be seen but is always surprising…

So what you can expect to see for 2014

First, In general, I will say that we can expect to see much in the way of portable devices that connect with our smartphones. What good are most gadgets if you have the need for tugging a PC around with you. Data I/O for the smartphone will be rising exponentially. Both by physical connection and wireless connections. 3D scanning and panoramic and omni view photography are a few things that come to mind but there are many others.

3D Replicators

Of course we have all seen 3D printing by now. But because of expiring patents, we will see many that do 3D metal printing from laser sintering (sls and dmls ) printers. Companies are geared up and waiting the expiration to release products.

For those that do not understand the impact of what this means for you because you say, “I’ll never do anything with one of those contraptions”, I say this.

No device ever made by man since the GUN will have such a larger impact on our somewhat civilized world. And the reason is two-fold. “New Innovation” and “Time To Market”.

This will unleash a new wave of innovators to produce things without the aid of a third party’s who may have traditional control of distribution of that industry.

Imagine a few thousand great innovations hitting the market every year or just solving some problems that the last innovation created.

The reality for 2014 will be that not just plastic, but metal, ceramic and even multi-color versions of plastic be available for the market. These 3D replicators still cost more the average home can afford, for now, but not necessarily for the local fabrication shop. Yes I did call them replicators and not a printer for a reason. They are not really printers but a process called additive manufacturing. A device that can produce a product from a stored memory of it’s characteristics is a “replicator” just like the term used on Star Trek.

With the addition of a highly accurate and inexpensive 3D SCANNER readily available, you can now take a existing part from your old collectable car you take out for show, that probably is no longer produced, and scan it and reproduce that part yourself. Complete with modification to enhance it’s performance if you desire.

Problem is, just like music being copied and distributed digitally, companies are going to have a problem from folks scanning the 3D images of these parts that have a patent and aftermarket part business is both big for the copier and destructive to those who were in the business.

Augmented and Virtual Reality

Google Glass

While we can describe the “GLASS” as a reality aid and a taste of Augmented Reality, defined as Reality with the supplement of computer graphics and information to enhance Reality.

I am a bit mystified by a backlash of folks that will not allow them in certain places. Why?

Because while someone has a Glass headset on, and that might take your picture or record you in some way? Wake-up folks, there are and have been many devices that can do the same that are not so obvious to anyone around. So why be upset by seeing one that you know what it is and what it can do. You have been able to buy thumb sized camera that can record for hours for under $20 for years on eBay. If I were to do covert recording, which do you think I would use?

The tech behind this is OK, But…. as I see it… it’s really not a “great thing”. It will be evolving to aid a lot of folks with stories we have yet to hear. It’s not a device that can do anything you couldn’t already do with a smartphone itself. Just the convenience of not having the need to look down at it or hold it in the air.

ie – Voice commands, data overlays from what the camera sees imposed on the screen and facial recognition, group video conferencing. All these are possible just with a smartphone.

If the consumer price is not under $250, I don’t see a widespread adoption of these outside of those who have to have the latest “thing” . And you will see them line up the day of release. But until you can do something that is not already possible with a smartphone, what’s the big deal. Perhaps later versions of it or if they put the entire smartphone in it?

With Google Glass taking most of the headlines for the latest great tech thingy, there was a bunch of other activity going on in innovation that was flying under the radar.

Glass is to hit the market in 2014 and will have a large impact over time. But what will have a deeper and broader impact “right now” is next…

The Oculus Rift

Back in the 90’s we were promised by leaders of the tech world that virtual reality was going to be the next big thing. Well, it never was delivered and most of the contraptions built were basically being laughed at by the general public and rightfully so.

But because of cost reductions of technology coming from the cell phone world, and a 20 year old hacker/maker with a passion to put the available tech together in one working product, we now have a real prototype soon to be a consumer device.

While I watch many tech items that are only kinda a good idea, this one got my attention right away as I could see the many implications in our modern world outside of the traditional gaming that I am not part of. One could “almost” say that this is the closest you are going to get to the Star Trek “HOLODECK”, For Now…

I actually own a developer prototype and intend to develop something of my own that I envisioned some time ago. But more importantly, so are about 40,000 other folks around the world. The device is what was promised back then and much more.

One of the things that helps provide the real feel is a head tracking sensor(s) that know where your head is pointed and at what angle. Electronic compass and a accelerometer borrowed from the cell phone tech world. The other item that gives it a real feel is the 110 degree field of view. It looks as if you are looking out a pair of ski goggles. Natural.

Even a poorly constructed virtual (computer generated) world, one of the first things you will notice when wearing one of these is that because of such a real feeling, you are tempted to reach out and touch something and soon realize that you have no arms in your virtual world. Setting you back to reality in a hurry but is a eery feeling the first time it captivates you.

This is not limited to computer graphics driving the reality, but real reality of/in a different space. The problem of “no arms” in your virtual world is being remedied by other developers as we speak. A new sensor system, some being from a camera that can detect “your real arms/hands” and some by placing trackable sensors in a controller for each hand.

What will this do for you…

It is not limited by the device itself as much as the developers imagination and the will to do it. I foresee movies created that put you in the scene, not a third party perspective. I see sports broadcasts that do the same. I see panoramic and omni-sperical video webcams that let you look around on Mars or Antarctica, your back yard or living room that let the user feel like they are there with a full field of view, the scene changing with the natural movements of your head as you would expect in the real world.

This will change the way we video-conference because each person in a roundtable discussion can be superimposed in 3D image around you while you are thousands of miles apart but appear to be sitting next to each other.

3D architectural designers can now take you through a journey through the proposed building or home and you can virtually walk through it and have a feel for space and positioning to know it it is correct. Like (for your home), does this bedroom have enough space for a king sized bed with other furniture in the room. Or for a building, does the position of sky-lights do something undesirable to the things we are trying to highlight in the lobby. This is something you can never get from a 2D drawing or a 2D rendition of a 3D model.

The consumer version of this is expected to be a higher resolution than the developer prototype with more head-tracking capabilities and support for iPhone and Android devices. Released expected i the 3rd quarter of 2014.

Both NASA and DOD have shown much interest in the new VR Goggle. As well as other innovative companies that want to augment or enhance their existing products.

It is kinda funny that we live in a world that was envisioned by 2 TV series of STAR TREK. We are now looking at the start of replicators and holodecks becoming a reality. But also George Orwell’s 1984.

Also, I would say that if I were a stock investor, I would be shorting Sony and Microsoft stock right now. Why?

Both have had great sales in their new gaming consoles. But with a item like the Rift, that will not be compatible with them, end user gamers will find themselves wanting something else. Most especially if they get the chance to experience this device.

This VR product came to market so fast, there was not the insight for either of them to build in support for anything like it. I believe both companies know this already. That is why they are saying they are working on a device of there own to protect there stock value and future sales of their consoles as many in the gaming community are aware of the Oculus rift.

Big Tech Companies always make some patents or news when they see a good idea on the market, but do not have one of their own. Often, when you have barely herd of the tech in the first place, they are very aware of it, and implications of it. This way, they can always answer the investor calls that they have one in the works and can at least, be believed.

Even if they do actually make something , it will be scant in comparison and probably cost much more than the Rift which is to retail for $300. Just look at Sony’s existing offerings of 3D goggles and the price tag and how long it took them to bring these items to market. So if they actually make something, it will be a act of desperation or a modified version of something they have made already. Disappointment can only follow. It is a shame as I have always liked and owned Sony Products. But you can’t win’em all.

What Sony and Microsoft need to put their energy into is this: Rush the next platform and include support for the Rift and change to a open platform. Otherwise all hardwired gaming consoles are dead in the water. New innovative products come to market faster than you can bake it in them. You can not change the flavor of the cake to chocolate while your putting the icing on.

Enter Steam Machines. A new gaming console that is not so limited. And a company that does not have as much of a monopolistic nature. Meaning, trying to control all aspects of the tech and distribution of it like the other 2 mentioned. This only makes you slow and cumbersome to market. Steam Machines will shine brightly.

So, shorting the other stock while it is flying high, only makes sense before all of these changes are realized in 2014. However, I am not advising anyone on how to invest their money. But… if I played the market myself, that is what I would do.

Compare the difference to a smartphone like the iPhone or Android that has many developers working on independent applications that ride on a common platform. Allowing some independence to those who write a app, directly profit from it. Who or what developer would not want not be in this space ? It’s those apps or programs that make your device desirable.

Hence is why Apple’s platform was such a success and has been modeled for all new platforms. Where has Sony and Microsoft been on this… …Lost In Product/App Monopoly !

The Oculus VR and the Rift started with a KICKSTARTER crowd funding campaign start to raise millions in a few weeks when they were only looking at 250k in 2 months and Oculus is up to 91 million dollars in funding as the folks in the industry who know this is the “Real McCoy” are flocking to work for them. I’m sure we will know more “after” the CES 2014 show in Vegas where I expect the Oculus VR team to have the crowd of folks to see what the consumer version will look and feel like. Also to shine at CES 2014, one other AR/VR headset to draw a crowd. The CastAR team. Former Valve employees also used a kickstarter campaign to launch a product that is indeed unique and expected to launch a consumer version in the year.

Time To Market

Which brings up another a new change you will feel in 2014, Innovation time to market, and who the innovators are. Crowd funding sites like kickstarter.com are changing who gets to profit from good ideas and who decides what a good idea is. This is changing everything as we know it. You will really see and feel it starting in 2014. It reminds me of what “The American Way” was suppose to be about before Corporate America monopolized it. This is just my opinion of it and I’m sure you have your own. I will say, many in crowd funding starts will at least get a buck from me even if I don’t think they are the ones to pull it off but the idea is good.

The spin-off tech from new innovators from just the above mentioned tech is going to change the world as we know it, and at a much faster pace. You might now understand the intro video I put in the beginning of this post.

But when we look back at this 2014 from the future, we will say it all started as what we now perceive as Today ! Can you see it yet ? I do ! Innovation will be alive and well like we have never before seen. The smaller, more nimble company will be the show, unless bought-out by the bigger one that fails to innovate on it’s own.

On the other hand, because of the lack of understanding of technology by politicians, it could also lead us to a bunch of irrational laws protecting those old mammoths of merger and acquisition who have the money to do it. Remember, he who pads the pockets of election campaigns gets to decide how the laws/regulation are written and more important, with what words they use in them. The future story to be written here is only one you can control as the issues arise. Remember that only more not less competition will bring results you can see and feel.

The Future is so bright, I gotta wear a VR Goggle for shades !

Toyota’s Unintended Acceleration Problem Still There – Recalls

It’s been a few years since we had a bunch of attention of the unintended acceleration problem that Toyota had with many models in the U.S. and now being almost 2014, we see Saudi Arabia and South Korea forcing recalls on the cars for the same problem.

Back when this problem first surfaced, I did a bunch of careful talking on the subject. Why so careful… Lawsuits !

I never actually spelled out the cause. I spoke in generalities and spoke of the general clash of RF generating tech in our increasingly data controlled world. To speak specifically, I needed a test vehicle that had the problem so I could test my “THEORY”. No such affected models were in my area and I could not get co-operation of dealers that were 20 miles or more away. So I will now speak to the issue in “detail” but still as a theory.

Like any science, the thing that makes the most sense, is normally correct but to understand this problem, you need to have a background in Radio Electronics, Digital Radio, Computer Data Communication and Computer Electronics.

Weird as it may be, these all have been hobbies of mine starting at the age of 11 in electronics and 20 in computer electronics and data/communication and a radio ham for 25 years and I’m over 50 at the time of writing this. OK, I just wanted you to have a feel as to why I understood this as I have had to troubleshoot various rf interference and even digital rf interference on my many projects.

First the up-to-date:

More recalls in Saudi Arabia and South Korea years after the issue was thought to be dead.

http://www.4-traders.com/TOYOTA-MOTOR-CORP-6492484/news/Toyota-Motor-Corp–Toyota-recalling-more-than-400000-vehicles-in-Saudi-Arabia-17662939/

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2013/12/23/0501000000AEN20131223000600320.html

http://www.japantoday.com/category/business/view/saudi-arabia-recalls-400000-toyotas-over-acceleration-concerns

Now with that let me explain in more plain English what exactly I thought was happening and how I think they fixed the problem in the United States were they did the Recall a few years ago. I am sorry if some do not understand this.

In Toyota’s case, I believe that GSM (used by AT&T and T-Mobile) cell phone data was being parasitic to the data line in between the console area of the cockpit and the vehicle computer.

This is a line that is expected to transfer binary data as the settings of the user instruments in the cockpit are digital or digitized analog data in nature and are simple low speed data to the ECM (computer).

The cell phone and vehicle computer do not speak the same language or talk at the same data rate. But occasionally a data string would be recognized as a command and act on it.

What made this still a bit baffling to me, and I did not think about it until after the original post I had made on the topic, was why user intervention was not stopping the acceleration. As I was later watching Toyota’s fix for this included a firmware update the solution came to me. What was in the update for the computer?

First let me explain something about micro-controller development as it is a bit like writing game programs on a PC (just for a example some may relate to). As the program gets to complicated for the developer to test things out without the need to go through all the steps of the program to test just one area or function, you need to create shortcuts or “backdoors”.

So it was this “backdoor” that seemed to be getting the interfering data to do things like (for example only) set the engine rpm to 3,000 rpm OR Force the cruise control at 60 MPH (for test in the lab for MPG tests etc). And if these backdoor engineers command sets were active, user intervention would not have been something the original code would have allowed for. So once active would be active until a engineers command came through to stop what it was doing or cancel the last command.

The entire problem was 2 fold.

1 The design engineering did not close their testing “backdoor” in the final product. By itself would not have been a problem except for –

2 The data lines in the cockpit area were not resistant to the parasitic nature of near-field GSM data communications found in cell phone from carriers like AT&T and T-Mobile.

Toyota’s fix, no doubt, was just to close the engineers “backdoor” and possibly add a string of code that allowed user intervention in the case it got there anyway.

Most likely the way they did it, as some of the options were probably used by dealerships in diagnostic testing to remedy problems reported by owners by specially designed equipment.

In any case what I have been saying is still true. We are probably going to experience more of this sort of weird stuff as this clash of Tech is just getting started.

In my original research on this issue, I had read a bunch of NTSB complaints. One item that was reported frequently that I though I could explain is not on the NTSB’s radar and it was this.

Many folks were reporting hard to steer or not able to steer and many were reporting accidents because of it.

So I look for similarities of each incident and found that the cars involved all had electronically assisted power steering (every car maker has their own term for there car but that is what it is).

Well, electronic power steering is just a way to do away with the mechanical power steering pump and get some horse power savings that translate into fuel savings. They could have done this stuff a long time ago and it’s a good idea. After all, you don’t need a pump running all the time when traveling as you really turn very little. Using electric motors only when needed just makes sense.

To control such a system, you need a sensor in the steering wheel to know if the driver is turning the wheel and in which direction and how fast . This would give the appropriate data to know how much assistance to apply to the steering assembly and what direction to apply it.

Having read many of these, the problem/solution did not hit me until I read one for the 3rd time as it was similar to another. The cars were attempting to overtake a tractor trailer on the interstate when the steering became hard or impossible to control.

BINGO… I understood right away.

Many truckers use CB radio which operates on a frequency of 26/27 MHz and has a wavelength of 11 meters. but more importantly, most truckers use amplifiers, actually illegally, but because of cutbacks in the FCC budget, nobody to enforce the rules so it is a common practice to use them and talk further down the highway.

The problem in this issue is that the strong RF signal is bombarding the sensors in the steering column and by falseing them, it’s telling the computer to steer hard in left and right at the same time. This makes it either difficult or impossible to steer.

I really doubt if the NTSB is not smart enough to figure this stuff out. So I think they have answers like what I just said here but play a game with the manufactures to push them into doing something about it without alarming the public in general. Probably because it is tough to prove a case so far that it indeed caused the accident. To do that without being in a lawsuit would be a hard line to walk. I realized that when I started writing and speaking on the issue.

Since GSM is the most popular format for cell phones in the majority of the world, it only makes sense that the other country’s would probably have more of a problem with this than we did.

So here it is that other countries having the problem have had enough problems to force a recall of the vehicles.

As Paul Harvey might say, Now you know the rest of the “untold” story.

If you would like to see my original Post on this (other site) please go here…

http://themidnightengineer.com/category/theory/unwanted-acceleration-theory/

Rich Folks Don’t Create Jobs

Every once in a while, you run into a person that personifies something you have been saying or thinking.

I found just that person:

“Nick Hanauer” and his TED TALK “Rich people don’t create jobs”
It is the first time that I know a TED TALK had been banned from being published.

Later released by a high level of public pressure at a later time. Please enjoy.

Oh… how true it is that if they created jobs with those tax breaks, there would be no unemployment to speak of.
What do they do with the money is a topic I have been trying to speak of here. They spend it not on building a better mousetrap. That would employ more folks and bring more competition. It would even create more tax revenue.

They take that money we gave them in tax relief and buy other company’s out (merger and acquisition) and reduces competition and employment by getting rid of duplicate jobs within the organization. This brings even higher profits and less jobs. Jobs are always a hindrance to profits.

The problem has become so bad now, at the point where we are right now , there are not enough folks working to pay the taxes so tax rates need to go up on the working class. And they now have less to spend and the rich can only get richer if they keep extracting more by paying less taxes and that game will be played till they pay nothing. Then what ?

Since we really don’t have the ability to tax the middle class enough to make-up for what we have been cutting taxes on the rich, we only get higher deficits. The rich make such a big deal about the deficits as only to constrain spending in the government in enforcement of regulation as they do not want the government looking over their shoulder.

We have plenty of rules and regulation, yes we do, and they were put there only because corporate America has miss-behaved before and they wish to do it again. You know, that pesky old “RED TAPE” that is keeping them from creating jobs ! When really, it is keeping them from making higher profits. More often than not those RED TAPE rules create jobs if you can believe that. But they have a impact on profits.

If you want no rules for the corporation, move to China and try to breath the air without getting cancer or drink the water without getting mercury poisoning. Oh… I guess they (corporate America) did already move there didn’t they. How long will the Chinese folks put up with air they can not breath. I guess they can loose a million or so to cancer or poisoning and you might not notice.

Moot point is you keep getting sold a bill of goods about tax rates and deficits and you are buying it lock-stock and barrel.

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