2014 is going to full of surprises for everyone and just to note that it is just the beginning of rapid new tech and the speed that it gets delivered to you is changing at the same time…
First, Let’s start off with a really cool video to entertain you that has nothing to do with what I’m about to talk about… except that the evolution of technology can be seen but is always surprising…
So what you can expect to see for 2014
First, In general, I will say that we can expect to see much in the way of portable devices that connect with our smartphones. What good are most gadgets if you have the need for tugging a PC around with you. Data I/O for the smartphone will be rising exponentially. Both by physical connection and wireless connections. 3D scanning and panoramic and omni view photography are a few things that come to mind but there are many others.
3D Replicators
Of course we have all seen 3D printing by now. But because of expiring patents, we will see many that do 3D metal printing from laser sintering (sls and dmls ) printers. Companies are geared up and waiting the expiration to release products.
For those that do not understand the impact of what this means for you because you say, “I’ll never do anything with one of those contraptions”, I say this.
No device ever made by man since the GUN will have such a larger impact on our somewhat civilized world. And the reason is two-fold. “New Innovation” and “Time To Market”.
This will unleash a new wave of innovators to produce things without the aid of a third party’s who may have traditional control of distribution of that industry.
Imagine a few thousand great innovations hitting the market every year or just solving some problems that the last innovation created.
The reality for 2014 will be that not just plastic, but metal, ceramic and even multi-color versions of plastic be available for the market. These 3D replicators still cost more the average home can afford, for now, but not necessarily for the local fabrication shop. Yes I did call them replicators and not a printer for a reason. They are not really printers but a process called additive manufacturing. A device that can produce a product from a stored memory of it’s characteristics is a “replicator” just like the term used on Star Trek.
With the addition of a highly accurate and inexpensive 3D SCANNER readily available, you can now take a existing part from your old collectable car you take out for show, that probably is no longer produced, and scan it and reproduce that part yourself. Complete with modification to enhance it’s performance if you desire.
Problem is, just like music being copied and distributed digitally, companies are going to have a problem from folks scanning the 3D images of these parts that have a patent and aftermarket part business is both big for the copier and destructive to those who were in the business.
Augmented and Virtual Reality
Google Glass
While we can describe the “GLASS” as a reality aid and a taste of Augmented Reality, defined as Reality with the supplement of computer graphics and information to enhance Reality.
I am a bit mystified by a backlash of folks that will not allow them in certain places. Why?
Because while someone has a Glass headset on, and that might take your picture or record you in some way? Wake-up folks, there are and have been many devices that can do the same that are not so obvious to anyone around. So why be upset by seeing one that you know what it is and what it can do. You have been able to buy thumb sized camera that can record for hours for under $20 for years on eBay. If I were to do covert recording, which do you think I would use?
The tech behind this is OK, But…. as I see it… it’s really not a “great thing”. It will be evolving to aid a lot of folks with stories we have yet to hear. It’s not a device that can do anything you couldn’t already do with a smartphone itself. Just the convenience of not having the need to look down at it or hold it in the air.
ie – Voice commands, data overlays from what the camera sees imposed on the screen and facial recognition, group video conferencing. All these are possible just with a smartphone.
If the consumer price is not under $250, I don’t see a widespread adoption of these outside of those who have to have the latest “thing” . And you will see them line up the day of release. But until you can do something that is not already possible with a smartphone, what’s the big deal. Perhaps later versions of it or if they put the entire smartphone in it?
With Google Glass taking most of the headlines for the latest great tech thingy, there was a bunch of other activity going on in innovation that was flying under the radar.
Glass is to hit the market in 2014 and will have a large impact over time. But what will have a deeper and broader impact “right now” is next…
The Oculus Rift
Back in the 90’s we were promised by leaders of the tech world that virtual reality was going to be the next big thing. Well, it never was delivered and most of the contraptions built were basically being laughed at by the general public and rightfully so.
But because of cost reductions of technology coming from the cell phone world, and a 20 year old hacker/maker with a passion to put the available tech together in one working product, we now have a real prototype soon to be a consumer device.
While I watch many tech items that are only kinda a good idea, this one got my attention right away as I could see the many implications in our modern world outside of the traditional gaming that I am not part of. One could “almost” say that this is the closest you are going to get to the Star Trek “HOLODECK”, For Now…
I actually own a developer prototype and intend to develop something of my own that I envisioned some time ago. But more importantly, so are about 40,000 other folks around the world. The device is what was promised back then and much more.
One of the things that helps provide the real feel is a head tracking sensor(s) that know where your head is pointed and at what angle. Electronic compass and a accelerometer borrowed from the cell phone tech world. The other item that gives it a real feel is the 110 degree field of view. It looks as if you are looking out a pair of ski goggles. Natural.
Even a poorly constructed virtual (computer generated) world, one of the first things you will notice when wearing one of these is that because of such a real feeling, you are tempted to reach out and touch something and soon realize that you have no arms in your virtual world. Setting you back to reality in a hurry but is a eery feeling the first time it captivates you.
This is not limited to computer graphics driving the reality, but real reality of/in a different space. The problem of “no arms” in your virtual world is being remedied by other developers as we speak. A new sensor system, some being from a camera that can detect “your real arms/hands” and some by placing trackable sensors in a controller for each hand.
What will this do for you…
It is not limited by the device itself as much as the developers imagination and the will to do it. I foresee movies created that put you in the scene, not a third party perspective. I see sports broadcasts that do the same. I see panoramic and omni-sperical video webcams that let you look around on Mars or Antarctica, your back yard or living room that let the user feel like they are there with a full field of view, the scene changing with the natural movements of your head as you would expect in the real world.
This will change the way we video-conference because each person in a roundtable discussion can be superimposed in 3D image around you while you are thousands of miles apart but appear to be sitting next to each other.
3D architectural designers can now take you through a journey through the proposed building or home and you can virtually walk through it and have a feel for space and positioning to know it it is correct. Like (for your home), does this bedroom have enough space for a king sized bed with other furniture in the room. Or for a building, does the position of sky-lights do something undesirable to the things we are trying to highlight in the lobby. This is something you can never get from a 2D drawing or a 2D rendition of a 3D model.
The consumer version of this is expected to be a higher resolution than the developer prototype with more head-tracking capabilities and support for iPhone and Android devices. Released expected i the 3rd quarter of 2014.
Both NASA and DOD have shown much interest in the new VR Goggle. As well as other innovative companies that want to augment or enhance their existing products.
It is kinda funny that we live in a world that was envisioned by 2 TV series of STAR TREK. We are now looking at the start of replicators and holodecks becoming a reality. But also George Orwell’s 1984.
Also, I would say that if I were a stock investor, I would be shorting Sony and Microsoft stock right now. Why?
Both have had great sales in their new gaming consoles. But with a item like the Rift, that will not be compatible with them, end user gamers will find themselves wanting something else. Most especially if they get the chance to experience this device.
This VR product came to market so fast, there was not the insight for either of them to build in support for anything like it. I believe both companies know this already. That is why they are saying they are working on a device of there own to protect there stock value and future sales of their consoles as many in the gaming community are aware of the Oculus rift.
Big Tech Companies always make some patents or news when they see a good idea on the market, but do not have one of their own. Often, when you have barely herd of the tech in the first place, they are very aware of it, and implications of it. This way, they can always answer the investor calls that they have one in the works and can at least, be believed.
Even if they do actually make something , it will be scant in comparison and probably cost much more than the Rift which is to retail for $300. Just look at Sony’s existing offerings of 3D goggles and the price tag and how long it took them to bring these items to market. So if they actually make something, it will be a act of desperation or a modified version of something they have made already. Disappointment can only follow. It is a shame as I have always liked and owned Sony Products. But you can’t win’em all.
What Sony and Microsoft need to put their energy into is this: Rush the next platform and include support for the Rift and change to a open platform. Otherwise all hardwired gaming consoles are dead in the water. New innovative products come to market faster than you can bake it in them. You can not change the flavor of the cake to chocolate while your putting the icing on.
Enter Steam Machines. A new gaming console that is not so limited. And a company that does not have as much of a monopolistic nature. Meaning, trying to control all aspects of the tech and distribution of it like the other 2 mentioned. This only makes you slow and cumbersome to market. Steam Machines will shine brightly.
So, shorting the other stock while it is flying high, only makes sense before all of these changes are realized in 2014. However, I am not advising anyone on how to invest their money. But… if I played the market myself, that is what I would do.
Compare the difference to a smartphone like the iPhone or Android that has many developers working on independent applications that ride on a common platform. Allowing some independence to those who write a app, directly profit from it. Who or what developer would not want not be in this space ? It’s those apps or programs that make your device desirable.
Hence is why Apple’s platform was such a success and has been modeled for all new platforms. Where has Sony and Microsoft been on this… …Lost In Product/App Monopoly !
The Oculus VR and the Rift started with a KICKSTARTER crowd funding campaign start to raise millions in a few weeks when they were only looking at 250k in 2 months and Oculus is up to 91 million dollars in funding as the folks in the industry who know this is the “Real McCoy” are flocking to work for them. I’m sure we will know more “after” the CES 2014 show in Vegas where I expect the Oculus VR team to have the crowd of folks to see what the consumer version will look and feel like. Also to shine at CES 2014, one other AR/VR headset to draw a crowd. The CastAR team. Former Valve employees also used a kickstarter campaign to launch a product that is indeed unique and expected to launch a consumer version in the year.
Time To Market
Which brings up another a new change you will feel in 2014, Innovation time to market, and who the innovators are. Crowd funding sites like kickstarter.com are changing who gets to profit from good ideas and who decides what a good idea is. This is changing everything as we know it. You will really see and feel it starting in 2014. It reminds me of what “The American Way” was suppose to be about before Corporate America monopolized it. This is just my opinion of it and I’m sure you have your own. I will say, many in crowd funding starts will at least get a buck from me even if I don’t think they are the ones to pull it off but the idea is good.
The spin-off tech from new innovators from just the above mentioned tech is going to change the world as we know it, and at a much faster pace. You might now understand the intro video I put in the beginning of this post.
But when we look back at this 2014 from the future, we will say it all started as what we now perceive as Today ! Can you see it yet ? I do ! Innovation will be alive and well like we have never before seen. The smaller, more nimble company will be the show, unless bought-out by the bigger one that fails to innovate on it’s own.
On the other hand, because of the lack of understanding of technology by politicians, it could also lead us to a bunch of irrational laws protecting those old mammoths of merger and acquisition who have the money to do it. Remember, he who pads the pockets of election campaigns gets to decide how the laws/regulation are written and more important, with what words they use in them. The future story to be written here is only one you can control as the issues arise. Remember that only more not less competition will bring results you can see and feel.
The Future is so bright, I gotta wear a VR Goggle for shades !